Conceptual
We imagine the outcome of Venezuelan exodus toward Colombian work markets. The economic and you may personal drama when you look at the Venezuela triggered among the most important migratory exoduses when you look at the present years: more 4 mil Venezuelans kept its nation and you may next to step 1.8 billion found its way to Colombia. We demonstrate that an increase in step one p.p from labor likewise have due the newest migratory flow caused a drop inside the hourly earnings during the Colombia off 0.4% and you will a negative effect of 0.step one p.p. on the a job rates out of low-competent gurus. Brand new miss for the earnings is higher for males, low-skilled and you can everyday specialists.
Inclusion
The latest Venezuelan migratory exodus is one of the most important attacks off pressed migration globally: regarding the 4.5 billion out-of Venezuelans kept their nation and you can moved somewhere else Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). The best destination for departing Venezuelan migrants is Colombia. Centered on formal statistics, there have been nearly step 1.8 mil of Venezuelans surviving in Colombia inside the 2019, as a result of the Venezuelan economic and you will political drama, hence represents a rise in new show from Venezuelans residing Colombia relative to this new federal populace away from 0.07% inside the 2015 to 3.6% around from inside the 2019.
It high bout of migration signifies problematic so you can policymakers whom attempt to learn and quantify the potential monetary and you can social consequences of these a huge inflow off immigrants, especially for server countries instance Colombia.
Within papers, I exploit the brand new Venezuelan exodus to help you see the migratory episode’s effect on new Colombian work market. I use a variations-in-differences strategy and perform my personal research from the because of the level of visibility round the Colombian departments to that particular exogenous labor also Korean dating apps have treat, before and after 2016 (we.e. 2013-2019). Inside 2016 a significant and unforeseen migratory influx from Venezuelans so you’re able to Colombia happened if limits between them countries was basically reopened shortly after almost per year off closing.
My personal quotes recommend that the brand new intensification of one’s migratory move of Venezuelans originating in middle-2016 made a serious miss from inside the aggregate earnings and also in the fresh new a position rate of reasonable-skilled experts when you look at the Colombia. A boost in 1 percentage area (p.p.) of the work force due to the inflow regarding Venezuelans produced a 0.4% reduction of wages and you will an effective 0.step 1 p.p. reduction of employment to have lower-skilled workers; that it effect on work portray a drop from 0.18% according to the common employment price of reduced-skilled Colombian specialists inside the 2015, before the Venezuelan exodus. When i imagine such effects to possess Colombian divisions located on the border with Venezuela (La Guajira and you may Norte de Santander), performance teach your declines when you look at the wages and work for everyone experts had been everything 10% and you can step three.4 p.p. (a average a job), respectively, adopting the edging is actually re also-unsealed.
In order to estimate the effect off migration on these a couple of edging divisions, We create a processing group having fun with three departments off Colombia that were not highly affected by immigration and you will presented, on average, comparable trends when it comes to labor industry parameters along with similar socio-group qualities prior to the edging re-opening. To provide robustness to those results, We use a vinyl Handle Method and you can assess an equivalent distinctions-in-distinctions estimations given other combinations from divisions out of Colombia because control teams.
In addition estimate heterogeneous consequences by the sex, quantity of certification, work formality and you may offered if the people were locals or not. I find you to, in the aggregate, the fresh deterioration when you look at the wages is actually high for males as compared to girls and much more powerful to own low-skilled workers. Furthermore, the reduction in earnings is better having relaxed professionals but indeed there are not extremely important differences between neighbors and you can non-natives; the actual only real difference is the fact I have found a mathematically significant boost throughout the informality price one of non-neighbors inside Colombia.
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